GOP GAINS – AT 12:15 P.M. ET:  We routinely get dire reports of an upcoming catastrophe for the Republicans in the midterm elections.  But the polls have actually been tightening, and the news for the GOP really isn't that bad at all.  From Fox: 

The latest Fox News poll finds a tightening race when voters are asked their candidate preference in this fall’s congressional election.

That’s good news for Republicans because Democrats were up by 15 points in October (50-35 percent) in the so-called generic ballot test.  Now, it’s a 5-point edge, as 46 percent of voters would back the Democratic candidate in their district and 41 percent the Republican.

"Just winning the popular national vote is not enough to flip the House," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the poll with Democrat Chris Anderson.  "Given the GOP's districting advantages, data from 2012 and 2014 show the Democrats need an edge of at least five points to bring the majority into play."

“I like this question as a gauge of perceptions month to month,” says Anderson. “But its predictive power seven months from the election is dubious.” 

Anderson points out that in March of 2014, Democrats had a 2-point edge on the vote question and Republicans ultimately picked up 13 House seats that November.  And in March 2010, Republicans had a 4-point advantage and went on to win 63 seats.

COMMENT:  This is good.  But Republicans must run as if they're 20 points behind.  And they must get out the vote on election day.  Republicans historically have accepted defeat too easily, and, historically, have looked around for the worst possible candidates to run. We've seen some of those candidates go down to defeat in recent special elections.

But if the GOP gets its act together, and the Democrats keep their snobbish distance from the average voter, things may just turn out acceptably well in November.

March 25,  2018